- By Pierre-Alexandre
- February 4th, 2019
1/ Why I believe the famous 200-Week Moving Average support from the last bear cycle WILL BREAK during this bear market cycle:— Murad Mahmudov 🚀 (@MustStopMurad) January 31, 2019
Let's peel the onion and dig deeper and deeper into the Art & Science of Bitcoin's $BTCUSD weekly Moving Averages: pic.twitter.com/MWe5o63iZ3
2/ For the nerds in more detail: pic.twitter.com/8qzqScpYpT— Murad Mahmudov 🚀 (@MustStopMurad) January 31, 2019
3/ For the geeks in even more detail:— Murad Mahmudov 🚀 (@MustStopMurad) January 31, 2019
how MA25, MA50, MA100, MA200 all shift "one level" back with each cycle is absolutely remarkable.
(kinda crazy, caterpillar becoming a butterfly Pokemon evolution style) pic.twitter.com/qaylY4hAgH
4/ [The Science & Art of Bitcoin Weekly Moving Averages Continues]— Murad Mahmudov 🚀 (@MustStopMurad) January 31, 2019
For OCD psychopaths, you can go even deeper, throwing MA13 & MA400 into the mix, as well as note how the green MA50 leads to a more than 50% jump after the first touch before further collapse: pic.twitter.com/ZIQWspe2aQ
5/ To go *EVEN* deeper, I have discovered that ***the areas/squeezes/crosses between the Black MA25 and the Pink MA13*** often acts as support during bull markets and resistance during bear markets (several smaller very interesting discoveries inside if I say so myself tbh): pic.twitter.com/jDIrjhoQXh— Murad Mahmudov 🚀 (@MustStopMurad) January 31, 2019
- Cycles 1,2 and 3 were experienced in an immature market. There was no institutional mechanism to go short such as CME and Cboe Futures. This market now consists of different investors with different strategies. There is a more algorithmic trading and institutional investors in this space who allocate for other reasons then one technical trigger.
- 300 and 400 day Moving Averages are not historically used in traditional markets.
- The suggested price does not consider the effects of mining costs and the algorithm that determines the supply of bitcoin
- Does not consider that significant custodial and regulation developments (ETF’s etc) that could establish a bottom in the market and ignite a new bull run. At any stage fundamental news could trigger a significant reversal in the market
When an immature market is solely based on retail speculation, patterns may evolve as seen in Cycles 1,2 and 3 as there is nothing fundamental supporting the price. Blockstars feels this is no longer the case with Bitcoin. This market can no longer be traded purely on Technical Analysis. Whilst it is an important signal, it's something that should be used in conjunction with fundamental analysis before deciding to allocate.
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